Friday, October 14, 2011
India's Afghanistan Ties Driven by China, not Pakistan
The strategic partnership agreement signed by Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi last week made front-page news across the region and beyond. The attention it attracted is hardly surprising: The agreement, the first of its kind for Afghanistan, includes the provision of training for Afghanistan's military and police, the establishment of social and cultural exchanges, and measures to enhance economic ties.
It also comes in the context of increasing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. A day prior to the announcement, Karzai harshly criticized Islamabad for not supporting ongoing peace and stability operations in Afghanistan, accusing Pakistan's leaders of playing a "double game" when it came to the Taliban. Relations have been especially fraught since the killing in September of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani -- who headed Afghanistan's peace process -- allegedly by a group with close ties to Pakistani intelligence.
The timing of Karzai's criticisms and his signing of a landmark deal with Islamabad's historic rival led analysts and politicians to cast the growing relationship between India and Afghanistan as a snub to Pakistan. However, it would be short-sighted to categorize India and Afghanistan's recent closeness as intended solely to isolate Pakistan, as New Delhi's interest in the relationship may well have little to do with its cool feelings toward Islamabad.
From an Indian perspective, there are obvious security and diplomatic motivations that could propel a strategic relationship with Afghanistan. But a more realistic motivation is India's growing desire to become competitive in the race to secure natural resources. Over the past few months, what was at first ad hoc interest from various Indian mining companies to work in Afghanistan has grown into a cohesive, concerted effort. With encouragement from New Delhi, an Indian consortium placed a bid last month for the massive Hajigak iron ore mine in Afghanistan's Bamiyan province. The Indian bid is considered to be a top contender to receive the license. It also represents one of the first real commitments of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Afghanistan's extractive industries from a country other than China.
India has also shown an interest in increasing local capacity in the extractive industries in Afghanistan, a sign that Indian policymakers are not expecting their engagement to end with this one iron ore project, but rather have a longer-term commitment in mind. Specifically, India's School of Mines is providing ongoing training in the areas of sustainable natural-resource management and highly specialized mining technology to Afghan engineers. There are plans to expand this project in collaboration with Afghanistan's Ministry of Mines to develop a comprehensive Afghan institute of mining.
The commitments of time, money and institutional resources are a clear indicator that India wants a foothold in Afghanistan. While much of this effort is driven by a desire to bolster India's natural-resource-exploitation profile abroad, there is also an element of geostrategy at play. India's "hot peace" with Pakistan certainly drives New Delhi's security calculations in Afghanistan, but it is not a good reason to invest hundreds of millions of dollars there. China's strong presence in Afghanistan, however, is.
China is currently the largest investor in Afghanistan's extractive industries sector, having just secured another contract to drill oil in the north. The success of the oil deal in the Amu Darya basin, an area which extends into neighboring Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, can be attributed to China's now-textbook bidding procedure: Flood the host country with cash. The drilling agreement between the Chinese state-owned oil company, CNPC, and the Afghan government will see the Chinese company pay out a massive 15 percent royalty fee on oil and a 30 percent corporate tax. China first turned its attention to Afghanistan in 2007 when China Metallurgical Group won the concession to exploit the Aynak copper mine with a bid of just less than $3 billion.
But what India cannot match in cash flow, it makes up for with its genuine interest in regional stability. China has avoided direct involvement in South Asia's regional politics and security environment, relying on international security forces to protect its investments. In an uncertain time for regional relations, Afghanistan will likely find it reassuring to enter into a partnership with a country such as India that has a vested interest in improving the regional security landscape.
China continues to demonstrate that it is less risk-averse than other investors, but its recent dealings with longtime ally Pakistan underscore the fact that Beijing has its limits -- as well as a strategic approach to its regional investment. Even as it signed on to invest further in Afghanistan, China simultaneously pulled out of a $19 billion coal mining deal in Pakistan, saying the conditions in the country were too unstable. What would have been Pakistan's largest tranche of FDI was canceled in favor of a more aggressive FDI agenda in Afghanistan. The move further validates India's decision to get closer to Afghanistan economically and highlights Pakistan's regional irrelevance in the race to secure natural resources.
From an economic perspective, India's move to develop the bilateral relationship with Afghanistan is smart business. From a geopolitical vantage point, it is also a wise play in its rivalry with China. But the crucial question is whether India can tolerate the considerable risk, financial and otherwise, involved in building a relationship with a politically uncertain Afghanistan. Ironically, the success of India's natural resource relationship with Afghanistan will ultimately come down to the stability of Pakistan, the crucial link between Afghanistan and India needed to transport raw materials efficiently from mine to refinery.
Kari Lipschutz is currently pursuing a doctoral degree at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Her research focuses on the correlation between natural resource management regimes and conflict. Her master's dissertation at SOAS explored Afghanistan's recent mineral law and policy reform process. She can be reached at Kari.Lipschutz AT gmail.com.
Photo: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Kabul, Afghanistan, May 12, 2011 (photo from the website of the prime minister of India).
World Politics Review
Time Magazine; Mining for Silver Bullets: Why Afghan Minerals Won't Save the Country
Posted by ARYN BAKER Friday, October 14, 2011 at 4:41 am
The future of Afghanistan can be seen in a lump of lustrous black rock showcased on Wahidullah Shahrani's bookshelf. Or so he would have me believe. The energetic minister of mines has spent the past half hour elucidating the potentials of the rich iron deposit in the mountainous province of Bamiyan from which that rock comes. He speaks of hundreds of thousands of jobs, a doubling of government revenue, and a windfall that could add upwards of $20 billion a year to GDP. If Shahrani, whose rapid-fire patter and white suit bear all the hallmarks of a Las Vegas croupier, speaks with the forced optimism of someone whose very existence depends on selling Afghanistan's future to the highest bidder, it's because his does. After twenty years of war and another decade of ever more violent peace, Afghans have come to the belated realization that when foreign forces leave as planned in 2014, they will no longer have the funds to live in the way in which they've become accustomed. So they are betting the house. And the international coalition of nations that has underwritten Afghanistan's military, its development projects, its electrical plants, its roads and even its government salaries, is backing them in hopes that a withdrawal cushioned by a resource jackpot won't lead to an insurgent takeover or civil war.
Afghanistan is a land rich in mineral deposits. But its remote location and insecurity rendered the cost of extraction too high. Until recently. Global demand has driven prices upwards, and what was untouchable even a decade ago now has the lure of a central-Asian El Dorado. “Mining has the potential to save Afghanistan,” says Shahrani. “By 2024 it will be the largest driver of economic growth, and it will help smooth the transition from a country heavily dependent on international aid to a country that can stand on its own feet.”
New revelations about Afghanistan's vast, untapped mineral wealth have diplomatic and military officials crowing that soon the country will be able to pick up its own tab. But skeptics raise an eyebrow over the “sudden” discovery – even the Soviets enthused about the country's mining potential back in the 80s. To many, mining, like progress in training the Afghan army and military gains in the south, are false indicators of success, designed to pave the way for a quick and dignified exit from the country. “Suddenly, out of nowhere Afghanistan has big mineral reserves,” says Martine van Bijlert of the Afghan Analysts Network. “Of course it has the minerals, but it conveniently completes the narrative that says actually, once we transition, we are leaving Afghanistan in a situation where pretty soon it will be able to look after itself.”
If only it were that easy.
Shahrani's rock collection and the riches it represents—chalky green copper, gold, raw rubies, coal and unidentifiable lumps veined with rare earths, the minerals that power modern technological devices like the Blackberry and the Prius—is expected to fill the void of the American departure. But even his most outlandish assessments are dwarfed by the funds that the U.S. alone spends on development, reconstruction and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan. His projections for government revenue from mining in 2016, when all seven of Afghanistan's major sites are expected to be fully functioning, only amount to $1.5 billion, less than half the projected cost of running an Afghan army essential for keeping the insurgency at bay.
And that's only if everything goes exactly to plan. Shahrani admits that his estimates are based on the assumption that the security situation will not deteriorate further, an unlikely scenario given the recent spate of violence in the capital and elsewhere. Once tranquil Bamiyan, where the Hajigak iron mine – the source for Shahrani's lump of iron – is located, has seen an uptick in violence. And access to the mine goes through Wardak province, an as-of-yet untamed hotbed of insurgent activity. And the greater the insecurity, the less likely investors will be willing to risk lives, cash and equipment.
Unlike gemstones, which in Afghanistan have been historically mined in small-scale operations, iron and copper ore require massive amounts of infrastructure. There needs to be a reliable sources of power and water, along with a good network of roads to get the materials out. And there needs to be a government capable of managing the sudden influx of revenue in a transparent and efficient manner. “None of that is in Afghanistan,” says Van Bijlert. “It takes good legislation, it takes a more capable and a cleaner government to manage that properly. So it's a very shaky premise to say that because we have all these minerals in the ground Afghanistan is going to be alright very soon.”
Maybe not soon, but, if the right policies and changes are instituted now, Afghan mining could continue to deliver long after the last lumps of ore have been dug from the ground. The World Bank's Michael Stanley, who oversees the oil, gas and mining departments, says that looking at Afghan mining purely through a revenue lens gives short shrift to the other potential benefits. International mining consortiums bidding for rights in Afghanistan will need to build their own power plants, roads and wells in order to extract those minerals. The key to sustainable success for Afghanistan, says Stanley, is a government that can ensure those infrastructure projects benefit the local populace as much as the mining companies. “It's clear that Afghanistan has something within its borders that can bring multi billion dollar foreign direct investment, but whether or not that is catalytic for growth depends on how the government can leverage that private sector development towards the broader public good.”
When the Hajigak iron mine went up for tender, only six countries put in bids. It was disappointing, but expected. Not only are the infrastructure hurdles high, but growing insecurity makes developing the mine even more difficult. The biggest drawback, however, is a lack of rule of law. Afghanistan recently tied for second place in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index. And while Shahrani has made a firm commitment to transparency and clean management within his ministry, his anti-corruption successes must be replicated across government as a whole.
International mining companies want to know that their investments will be protected through rigorous implementation of the law. “At a minimum, they want to know that if they put their equipment and investment into the country, it is still theirs at the end of the lease,” says Mary Louise Vitelli, an American legal advisor to the mining ministry who is currently helping to draft new mining laws. “They want to know that the operation will not be nationalized,” That doesn't mean just having laws in place, but faith that the government can enforce them.
Even if the funds necessary to keep the country running could be coaxed from rich terrain, they would do little to bridge the gaping divide between the government and its people, one that fuels the insurgency as much as it threatens to obliterate the fragile gains of our decade-long investment in Afghanistan. A government mired in corruption and incompetence could easily turn Afghanistan's mineral resources into a curse. So instead of setting mining up to be the silver bullet solution to Afghanistan's ills, it's better to think of it as a reward for when everything else goes right.
Time Magazine
The future of Afghanistan can be seen in a lump of lustrous black rock showcased on Wahidullah Shahrani's bookshelf. Or so he would have me believe. The energetic minister of mines has spent the past half hour elucidating the potentials of the rich iron deposit in the mountainous province of Bamiyan from which that rock comes. He speaks of hundreds of thousands of jobs, a doubling of government revenue, and a windfall that could add upwards of $20 billion a year to GDP. If Shahrani, whose rapid-fire patter and white suit bear all the hallmarks of a Las Vegas croupier, speaks with the forced optimism of someone whose very existence depends on selling Afghanistan's future to the highest bidder, it's because his does. After twenty years of war and another decade of ever more violent peace, Afghans have come to the belated realization that when foreign forces leave as planned in 2014, they will no longer have the funds to live in the way in which they've become accustomed. So they are betting the house. And the international coalition of nations that has underwritten Afghanistan's military, its development projects, its electrical plants, its roads and even its government salaries, is backing them in hopes that a withdrawal cushioned by a resource jackpot won't lead to an insurgent takeover or civil war.
Afghanistan is a land rich in mineral deposits. But its remote location and insecurity rendered the cost of extraction too high. Until recently. Global demand has driven prices upwards, and what was untouchable even a decade ago now has the lure of a central-Asian El Dorado. “Mining has the potential to save Afghanistan,” says Shahrani. “By 2024 it will be the largest driver of economic growth, and it will help smooth the transition from a country heavily dependent on international aid to a country that can stand on its own feet.”
New revelations about Afghanistan's vast, untapped mineral wealth have diplomatic and military officials crowing that soon the country will be able to pick up its own tab. But skeptics raise an eyebrow over the “sudden” discovery – even the Soviets enthused about the country's mining potential back in the 80s. To many, mining, like progress in training the Afghan army and military gains in the south, are false indicators of success, designed to pave the way for a quick and dignified exit from the country. “Suddenly, out of nowhere Afghanistan has big mineral reserves,” says Martine van Bijlert of the Afghan Analysts Network. “Of course it has the minerals, but it conveniently completes the narrative that says actually, once we transition, we are leaving Afghanistan in a situation where pretty soon it will be able to look after itself.”
If only it were that easy.
Shahrani's rock collection and the riches it represents—chalky green copper, gold, raw rubies, coal and unidentifiable lumps veined with rare earths, the minerals that power modern technological devices like the Blackberry and the Prius—is expected to fill the void of the American departure. But even his most outlandish assessments are dwarfed by the funds that the U.S. alone spends on development, reconstruction and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan. His projections for government revenue from mining in 2016, when all seven of Afghanistan's major sites are expected to be fully functioning, only amount to $1.5 billion, less than half the projected cost of running an Afghan army essential for keeping the insurgency at bay.
And that's only if everything goes exactly to plan. Shahrani admits that his estimates are based on the assumption that the security situation will not deteriorate further, an unlikely scenario given the recent spate of violence in the capital and elsewhere. Once tranquil Bamiyan, where the Hajigak iron mine – the source for Shahrani's lump of iron – is located, has seen an uptick in violence. And access to the mine goes through Wardak province, an as-of-yet untamed hotbed of insurgent activity. And the greater the insecurity, the less likely investors will be willing to risk lives, cash and equipment.
Unlike gemstones, which in Afghanistan have been historically mined in small-scale operations, iron and copper ore require massive amounts of infrastructure. There needs to be a reliable sources of power and water, along with a good network of roads to get the materials out. And there needs to be a government capable of managing the sudden influx of revenue in a transparent and efficient manner. “None of that is in Afghanistan,” says Van Bijlert. “It takes good legislation, it takes a more capable and a cleaner government to manage that properly. So it's a very shaky premise to say that because we have all these minerals in the ground Afghanistan is going to be alright very soon.”
Maybe not soon, but, if the right policies and changes are instituted now, Afghan mining could continue to deliver long after the last lumps of ore have been dug from the ground. The World Bank's Michael Stanley, who oversees the oil, gas and mining departments, says that looking at Afghan mining purely through a revenue lens gives short shrift to the other potential benefits. International mining consortiums bidding for rights in Afghanistan will need to build their own power plants, roads and wells in order to extract those minerals. The key to sustainable success for Afghanistan, says Stanley, is a government that can ensure those infrastructure projects benefit the local populace as much as the mining companies. “It's clear that Afghanistan has something within its borders that can bring multi billion dollar foreign direct investment, but whether or not that is catalytic for growth depends on how the government can leverage that private sector development towards the broader public good.”
When the Hajigak iron mine went up for tender, only six countries put in bids. It was disappointing, but expected. Not only are the infrastructure hurdles high, but growing insecurity makes developing the mine even more difficult. The biggest drawback, however, is a lack of rule of law. Afghanistan recently tied for second place in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index. And while Shahrani has made a firm commitment to transparency and clean management within his ministry, his anti-corruption successes must be replicated across government as a whole.
International mining companies want to know that their investments will be protected through rigorous implementation of the law. “At a minimum, they want to know that if they put their equipment and investment into the country, it is still theirs at the end of the lease,” says Mary Louise Vitelli, an American legal advisor to the mining ministry who is currently helping to draft new mining laws. “They want to know that the operation will not be nationalized,” That doesn't mean just having laws in place, but faith that the government can enforce them.
Even if the funds necessary to keep the country running could be coaxed from rich terrain, they would do little to bridge the gaping divide between the government and its people, one that fuels the insurgency as much as it threatens to obliterate the fragile gains of our decade-long investment in Afghanistan. A government mired in corruption and incompetence could easily turn Afghanistan's mineral resources into a curse. So instead of setting mining up to be the silver bullet solution to Afghanistan's ills, it's better to think of it as a reward for when everything else goes right.
Time Magazine
APP; Steps afoot to ensure peace in Balochistan: Malik
ISLAMABAD: Minister for Interior Rehman Malik said Friday the government was taking solid steps to ensure peace in Balochistan.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik. — File photo
Talking to media representatives outside the parliament, the minister said on the directive of President Asif Ali Zardari he would be visiting Quetta every week to improve the law and order situation by tackling the abductors in a more vigorous manner.
He said anit-Pakistan elements were attacking the Shia community under a conspiracy but, he added, these elements would be dealt with an iron hand.
He said a result of effective measures was that target killings in Balochistan had decreased and added that the government would soon overcome these incidents.
Replying to a question about imposing governor rule in Balochistan, the minister said that although he respected the sentiments of the people of Balochistan, the government would take steps according to the Constitution.
He said security had been reinforced in areas housing the Shia community and the pilgrims were being escorted and facilitated.
DAWN
Talking to media representatives outside the parliament, the minister said on the directive of President Asif Ali Zardari he would be visiting Quetta every week to improve the law and order situation by tackling the abductors in a more vigorous manner.
He said anit-Pakistan elements were attacking the Shia community under a conspiracy but, he added, these elements would be dealt with an iron hand.
He said a result of effective measures was that target killings in Balochistan had decreased and added that the government would soon overcome these incidents.
Replying to a question about imposing governor rule in Balochistan, the minister said that although he respected the sentiments of the people of Balochistan, the government would take steps according to the Constitution.
He said security had been reinforced in areas housing the Shia community and the pilgrims were being escorted and facilitated.
DAWN
بلوچستان میں لشکری جھنگوی حالات خراب کر رہی ہے، دہشتگردوں کیخلاف کارروائی جاری ہے، رحمان ملک
اسلام آباد:اسلام ٹائمز۔ وفاقی وزیر داخلہ رحمان ملک نے کہا ہے کہ بلوچستان کے حالات خراب کرنے میں لشکر جھنگوی ملوث ہے، دہشتگردوں کیخلاف ایف سی اور پولیس کے ذریعے کارروائی جاری ہے۔ پارلیمنٹ ہاوس کے باہر بلوچستان سے تعلق رکھنے والے رکن قومی اسمبلی ناصر علی شاہ کے ساتھ ملاقات کے دوران میڈیا سے بات چیت میں انہوں نے کہا کہ ملک میں جمہوری ادارے کام کر رہے ہیں، ناصر شاہ جن لوگوں کی کی نشاندہی کریں گے ان کیخلاف ایکشن لیا جائے گا۔
واضح رہے کہ ناصر علی شاہ نے ملک میں جاری بدامنی، لوڈشیڈنگ، مہنگائی اور خصوصاً اختر آباد واقعے کے خلاف اپنا احتجاجی دھرنا بدستور آج بھی جاری رکھا ہوا ہے۔ آج صبح دس بجے جب قومی اسمبلی کا اجلاس شروع ہو ا تو اس موقع پر مختلف ممبران قومی اسمبلی نے ناصر علی شاہ سے اظہار یکجہتی کیا۔ اس موقع پر وزیراعظم کی اسپیشل ایڈوائزر بیگم شہناز وزیر علی نے ناصر علی شاہ ممبر قومی اسمبلی سے دریافت کیا تھا کہ کیا اب تک آپ سے کسی نے حکومت یا پارٹی کی طرف سے رابطہ کیا اور کیا آپ کے مطالبات پورے نہیں کئے گئے۔ اس پر دھرنے میں بیٹھے ممبر قومی اسمبلی نے جواب دیا کہ نہیں اب تک کوئی مطالبہ پورا نہیں کیا گیا اور نہ ہی کسی نے دھرنا ختم کروانے کے لئے رابطہ کیا ہے۔ اس پر وزیر اعظم کی اسپیشل مشیر نے کہا کہ میں اس سلسلے میں آج وزیر اعظم سے بات کرتی ہوں۔ ذرائع کے مطابق وفاقی وزیر داخلہ رحمان ملک نے ناصر علی شاہ سے اس سلسلے میں بات چیت کی ہے، جسکے مثبت نتائج سامنے آنے کی امید ہے۔
Islam Times
Thursday, October 13, 2011
لندن کې د اتومي فزيک افغان محصل جايزه وگټه
طاهر شاران د لندن له يو سي ايل له پوهنتونه د د ليزر وړانگو په وړاندې د اتمي جوړښت په باب د کړې څيړنې له بريالۍ دفاع وروسته د فوستر کرې په نامۀ د پام وړ جايزه وگټله .
د جايزې د ورکړې پر وخت ويل شوي چې د طاهر شاران څيړنې د فزيکي غبرگون د نړيوالې څيړنيزې ادارې له خوا ستايل شوي او په دې دليل ورته دا وياړ ور په برخه کوي .
د يو سي ايل پوهنتون وايي د ډاکټر طاهر شاران څيړنه چې د دغه پوهنتون د اتمي فزيک د استاد کالا فريا تر نظر لاندې شوې وه په دې وروستيو کې د جرمني د فزيک د مطالعاتو د يوې موسسې له خوا وڅيړل شوه او د خورا مهم سند په توگه وگټل شوه .
ډاکټر شاران له بي بي سي سره په خبرو کې د دغې جايزې پر ترلاسه کولو خوښي وښووله خو ويې ويل چې د دۀ څيړنه د دۀ په وينا په سمندر کې د يوۀ څاڅکي برابر ده .
ډاکټر طاهر شاران د افغانستان د باميان په ولايت کې زيږيدلى او په مزار شريف کې يې لومړنۍ زده کړې کړي دي .
دى وايي ليواله دى چې يوه ورځ افغانستان ته ستون شي او هلته د اتمي انرژۍ په برخه کې کار وکړي .
په لويديځ کې گڼ شمير افغان ځوانان په لوړو زده کړو بوخت دي خو ډيرى يې له پېچلو ساينسي مضامينو سره مينه نه ښيي .
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